The Garnaut Review of Climate Change; 2008
Economist Ross Garnaut Reviewed the impacts of Climate Change. This was part of a contributed report estimating the impacts of climate change on human health outcomes. A simple climate model at a climate sensitivity of 3°C (MAGICC, developed by Sarah Raper and Tom Wigley and used by the IPCC). 3°C is the mid-point estimate of sensitivity from IPCC AR4, and produces a warming of 4.53°C from 1990 (all changes given are from a baseline of 1990). Temperature, rainfall and relative humidity have been calculated from patterns of change from a range of climate models that have been tested and screened for their ability to simulate climate in the Australian region. Details can be found in the CSIRO/BoM 2007 climate projections for Australia. Our work used these climate scenarios to estimate future patterns of disease likely to occur under such changed meteorological conditions.